What Happens to Workers at Firms that Automate

This paper estimates the impact of firm-level investments in automation technologies on worker-level outcomes. It finds that automation increases the probability of incumbent workers separating from their employers, in line with recent task-based models of automation. It shows that incumbent workers experience a 5-year cumulative wage income loss of 9 percent of one year’s earnings on average, driven by decreases in days worked. These adverse impacts of automation are larger in smaller firms, and for older and less-educated workers. By contrast, no such losses are found for firms' investments in computers.

Jim Bessen, Maarten Goos, Anna Salomons, and Wiljan van den Berge